The first quarter of the year is pretty interesting and
won’t surprise you. Given the nature of how buying and selling has become I
would argue that our market had grown to have more year-round strength rather
than exclusive seasonal which for sure was the way were in the past. As I
reviewed the quarterly data to report trends and any other foreseeable opportunities,
I kept this idea in mind. Winter of ’21 had some movement and hustle to it as I
recall, or at least for me, yet our numbers are kinda close in some aspects,
namely the condo market. So at this moment in time I ask, are we year-round or
is inventory is as great of an issue as projected by the community? Or, as some
statistics might suggest, are we experiencing a seasonal market again? You
could make strong cases for each yet which one of these is the bigger headline?
Condos: In terms of total volume, Warm Springs with 8 less listings is
the only area that is notably down at the moment. Otherwise, total active
inventory is pretty flat. For new inventory, Elkhorn and Warms Springs with 9
and 8 less listings are the biggest decline. When you look at these numbers
that reflect inventory, we actually are sitting pretty flat over a year ago.
Warm Springs showing up on decline in both stats is certainly for good reason as
they are up 48% in sold volume from a year ago. So, units are selling. What’s
assuring for both sides of the sell and buy coin is that total sold volume are
within roughly two million year over and the average sale price is down 26k.
Needless to say condo market is staying strong and steady especially when you
look at percentage of list price closed.
Residential Land: Much different story than the condo market. 49% decline in
total active inventory yet only down 26% in new inventory. Of course, we all
know that a lot of bare land has traded in the past couple years and it is a
limited resource. Pretty much all aspects of this sector are down with one non
surprising exception: the average sale price is up. Namely, in “other” which is
pretty much anywhere unincorporated with Blaine County and/or outside of the
county. They saw a growth of 138% from three sales and Warm Springs with one
sale is fluffing their number up pretty heavy. Bellevue on the other hand is
the only area collecting data that saw a decline in average price and that was
an 11% drop. On a positive note, a lot of big developable parcels are being
purchased accounting for single sales that should drive up the amount of new
inventory as they get permit approvals and infrastructure installed. All
existing in the southern part of the valley.
Single Family: For the most part inventory as a whole is down with a couple
exceptions in “other” and Elkhorn. However, the active inventory as
a whole is only down 12% which is fairly hard to believe if you are glued to listing
websites as often as I am. I would have expected it to be even lower. For new inventory, it is down 22% and that's pretty
steady throughout the valley unless you’re looking at Elkhorn up 200% which is
only to say they have six new listing over two the year before. For the most
part, the total volume sold was pretty solid in the major areas and due to higher price points. Hailey was
bomber with 39 total single-family units selling in the first quarter of the
year, up 50%. The total volume was only down 5% and the total average sale
price was down two percent. When looking at percentage of list price sold,
the numbers area staying pretty strong and lead me to believe agents are
pricing fairly accurately to what the market will pay.
Farm and Ranch: The ranch world has pretty much been cut in half from a year
ago across the board in total active listings, new listings, under contract
etc. Just twelve total active farm and ranch parcels from 21 a year ago. Farming
does have some inventory to play with and has yet to hit the pallet of buyer
ship just yet. In this realm I can confidently say that should change as the
months get warmer again. Then again, these take up more room so there’s fewer
of them.
