Three quarters of 2021 have passed us by and the numbers are telling us a story. After the second quarter I determined that the story was best told by not only looking the quarter compared to year over and also against the previous quarter. The further we get away from the second quarter of 2020 the less this might be necessary. From a market movement stand point the third quarter does tell a story we’ve seen year after year which is a late summer push followed by an early fall cool off. As a whole I’d argue as we enter the fourth quarter the market is starting to soften yet the demand is still there. This story is better told looking at the September Market Summary as the carryover of summer sales from the second quarter and the addition of new inventory early in the third keep our numbers strong. From what I can tell market trends are spreading valley wide and could speak to buyers finding alternative solutions to the lack of inventory in the downtown areas.
Condos:
The world of Condos remains strong especially in Ketchum and slightly in Sun Valley. There’s a little bit of a hole in Warm Springs where I think there exists opportunity and value despite the lack of inventory. Pay attention to the percentage of list to sale price. I think it speaks to the aim low shoot high theory or rather price for the base hit to get a homerun which is to say list at a number that gets mass attention to create a bidding war that eventually lands at a higher sale price.
Condo sales in the third quarter versus the second actually had more total active inventory by about 22 units. Thus, the average sales price and total volume remain even or slightly higher than the second quarter. The total sales volume of condos in the third quarter amounted to 72% of the first two quarters’ combined volume, 90 million in the third quarter versus 125 million in the first two quarters of the year.
Single Family:
In Single Family homes, to me this is where the valley wide trend starts to present itself and we’ll definitely see it in land sales. Elkhorn’s average sale price year over is up 134% and what still stands out to me is that list to sale price is down 2%, which is to say homes are closing on average 92% of the listing price. So, this is a part of the market where face value isn’t the hard value. Sales in Ketchum and Sun Valley have notably gone down whereas the rest of the valley is looking really good. Regardless of scarcity I think this is where buyer ship has decided to get creative and find value elsewhere.
Quarter over quarter like in the condo market, single family homes saw an improvement of 53 new units to market in the third quarter to pump up active listings. At the conclusion of the second quarter total sales volume for the year to date was 284 million and in the third quarter alone is was 170 million. That’s 60% of the first two quarters. Additionally, the average sales price has gone up 212k throughout the valley as a whole. Luckily the average price in Bellevue has come down as that really needs to be an affordable sector of our market because if you can’t buy there how ya supposed to live here?
Vacant Land:
In Vacant Land here comes the broken record, Hailey, Warm Springs, and Sun Valley’s total volume should sky rocket at the close of the fourth quarter when Sun Beam, Warm Springs Ranch, and White Clouds expansion all mostly close. Those as a whole account for a lot of units and sales volume. If we look at land without including those developments, you’ll notice that it has slowed down tremendously. This part of the market scorched the past 18 months with the south valley moving and shaking for even longer which begs the question, has its momentum come to a head? Have price points reached their max for the time being? In the past two quarters, the second and third, only three lot sales have occurred in Ketchum and Sun Valley. Kinda reminds me of four or five years ago when land in the north valley moved at a similar rate. Last year in the third quarter of 2020 17 units sold in Sun Valley and just 3 in Ketchum, however Ketchum itself only has a small percentage (less than ten) of bare residential land left to build so in a way it’s been in a bit of a stand still all along. What does stand out to me are the three sales out in the Lost River Valley, aka the other side of Trail Creek and the Mackay area. Pretty big leap in price point so I imagine those reflect some bigger parcels.
As we approach the close of the fourth quarter I suspect we’ll see another imbalance in the market with its year over comparison. The monthly market summaries will be important to keep an eye each month as the year closes out. My bet is that sales will go down thus be a much lower comparison to the fourth quarter of 2020. It’s hard to say what will become of our market even as we get into 2022 and as an optimist I am sure the invisible hand will deal some cards.