As the second quarter concluded just a month ago and the US economy having its best quarterly growth in four years I have felt encouraged to take a hard look at Sun Valley’s current real estate market against this time a year ago. Last summer we had a very hot market with movement in lots of strong positive directions. High turn over, new inventory, and high sales volumes left me wondering how much further could our market grow? Drawing from the excel chart associated with this note here’s what has stood out to me.
In the condo market, taking only Sun Valley, Elkhorn, Ketchum and Warm Springs into account, total active inventory remains about the same with Warm Springs being the only exception as it is down 20%. New inventory as whole has increased for three of the sectors with only Warm Springs down 37%. Units under contract begin to get exciting as Elkhorn improves 72% and Sun Valley 38% over this time a year ago. They also lead in sold units as Sun Valley is up 25% and Elkhorn up 60%. When you look at average sale price against these statistics two numbers stand out, Sun Valley is up 16% a difference of 75k more while Ketchum is DOWN 11% declining 92k. My take away from this is Elkhorn is rising back while Warm Springs is dipping down.
In the residential single family home sector I have included the all but North of Ketchum. In my mind those numbers are so small with very high price points that they can miscommunicate reality. For total active listings, standing out is Sun Valley down 27% and Hailey up 9%. That’s 21 less listings in Sun Valley and 25 more in Hailey. For new inventory, Sun Valley is down 30%, Hailey up 15%, and the biggest stand out is Ketchum up 27%. That’s 12 less listings in Sun Valley, 29 more in Hailey, and 15 more in Ketchum. Here’s where things get more interesting, Elkhorn has 107% more homes under contract over a year ago and Ketchum has 42% more. The number of total homes sold in the valley is up 55% except for Sun Valley who is down 20% from a year ago, which makes it no surprise that the average volume sold for the valley is up 99% except for Sun Valley who is down 21%. Average sale price in Ketchum is up 62%, Warm Springs up 33%, and Elkhorn up 28%. The numbers supporting Ketchum’s growth is quite surprising and a testimony to our economy as this sector tends to move slowly and usually in the fall. To say the least, Ketchum is uncharacteristically booming for the first two quarters of this year.
In terms of vacant land Hailey is on the decline despite the addition of Quigley. Hailey’s total listings are down 14% while Sun Valley is up 32%. New inventory is strong in Ketchum up 185%, with Sun Valley up 53%, Warm Springs up 56%, with Elkhorn, Hailey, and Bellevue all down. The number of units sold in Hailey have declined 31% loosing 13 parcels over the year before. The average sale prices for vacant land have taken a big leap in some parts of the valley. Sun Valley is up 55%, Warm Springs up 52%, while again Ketchum stands out the most with an increase of 169% from 820k to 2.2m
What can we take away from this year’s second quarter statistics? Elkhorn is back on the rise, the Warm Springs condo market is declining, Ketchum’s single family homes are doing extremely well, while vacant land in Hailey and single family homes in Sun Valley are becoming less available and less in demand. If you are a buyer looking for a condo Warm Springs might be your first look. Sell your Elkhorn unit and now is the time to market your single family home in Ketchum. Otherwise, inventory for single family homes in Hailey and Bellevue are moving, Sun Valley condos are moving, and Ketchum condos are moving unusually slow at the moment.
